The AP has a review article on the “unprecedented rush to build snazzy commercial spaceports”, with a particular focus on efforts in New Mexico and Oklahoma. There’s not much new here, although the article thoughtfully includes a comparison to the last spaceport boom in the 1990s (some of the proposed spaceports listed on the map included with the article can trace their heritages back to that previous VentureStar-triggered boom). Derek Webber—a former colleague of mine—suggests that diversification can help cushion the blow of any future spaceport bust: “You’ve got to do your homework because not all states will succeed.”
Speaking of spaceports, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel follows up its earlier article about a proposed Sheboygan spaceport with an editorial that argues that the spaceport concept should be taken seriously. While acknowledging a number of issues that a spaceport there would have to face—not the least of which is the brutal winter weather—the editors retain some optimism about this effort. “The important thing is not to surrender to the mentality – one that is too prevalent in these parts – that automatically smothers fresh ideas and daring projects.”
Here’s another good story on the subject from Allison Gatlin at the AV Press: Spaceport begins facing competition — Mojave Airport still has developmental advantages.
If there are 3000 people/year in 2010 with a $100k-200k ticket price and New Mexico captures 1/3 of the market, that is $100 million – $200 million in commerce going through New Mexico. For 6% bonds for a $250 million capital outlay, they only need to return $15 million/year to the state or $15000 per customer. That’s pretty aggressive, but realistic and hopefully they’ll do better in the out years.
OK going for $15 million or so in tax credits only needs to return $900,000/year or $900/customer in the same scenario.