Tuesday’s announcement of the plans by startup Stratolaunch Systems to develop an air launch system attracted considerable attention and excitement, and understandably so. The world’s biggest airplane! A “dream team” that reunited Paul Allen and Burt Rutan for the first time since SpaceShipOne! An industry team that includes Scaled Composites and SpaceX! A [...]]]>

Tuesday’s announcement of the plans by startup Stratolaunch Systems to develop an air launch system attracted considerable attention and excitement, and understandably so. The world’s biggest airplane! A “dream team” that reunited Paul Allen and Burt Rutan for the first time since SpaceShipOne! An industry team that includes Scaled Composites and SpaceX! A board that includes not just Rutan and SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell, but also former NASA administrator Mike Griffin! And did I mention the world’s biggest airplane?

However, the more I thought about it later Tuesday and into yesterday, the more questions developed in my mind about this venture. From a technical standpoint, I don’t doubt that the Stratolaunch team has the ability to develop what they’re proposing, particularly given the experience of Scaled and SpaceX. Yes, there will be complications along the way, but these companies are as well positioned as any to deal with them.

Instead, I’ve been pondering this question: what problem does this system solve? That’s the key question for any business venture, not just a launch vehicle company. What can Stratolaunch do that others can’t do, or do as well or as cheaply? Air launch has its advantages, but also carries with it some disadvantages and other issues. That, coupled with what the company has released about its technical capabilities, leads me to wonder if the Stratolaunch system will really be that competitive over more conventional launch systems in service or under active development today.

Here are a few issues to consider:

Big plane, bigger pricetag. It’s likely the single most expensive element of the Stratolaunch system will be the aircraft. The rocket will be derived from the Falcon 9, with only four or five engines and a shorter first stage (perhaps equipped with some kind of delta wing, like on the Pegasus, according to the animation), which will reduce its development costs compared to a clean-sheet design. Developing the plane the size of what they’re planning will likely cost much more, even with their plans make use of existing 747 components, from the landing gear to its jet engines.

How expensive? The company hasn’t disclosed its development costs, beyond a statement by Paul Allen at Tuesday’s press conference where he said he expected to spent “an order of magnitude more” on this than he did on SpaceShipOne. Given that he spent $28 million on SS1, according to his memoir published earlier this year, that suggests spending around $300 million or more on Stratolaunch. And that may be still too low, as $300 million is in the ballpark for what it has cost to develop WhiteKnightTwo and SpaceShipTwo, a much smaller carrier aircraft and suborbital vehicle, respectively.

The Stratolaunch aircraft will be on a scale similar to the largest jetliners, like the 787 and A380, whose development each cost over $10 billion. Of course, those are passenger jetliners with significant certification costs, as well as upfront costs for construction of potentially thousands of such planes, while only one or two Stratolaunch planes, not intended (presumably) for passenger service, might ever be built.

The Airframe Cost Model provides an extremely basic cost model for aircraft development based on empty weight and speed. Those details aren’t available for this plane (only the gross takeoff weight, 1.2 million pounds or 540,000 kilograms, is given), but assuming a modest empty weight of 250,000 pounds—about the same as the considerably smaller 787—and a top speed of 300 knots, the model yields, for one test aircraft and one production model, a total cost of $4.7 billion (in 2004 dollars). That is almost certainly far too high: the model is based on the production of older military aircraft, including the giant C-5 cargo plane, and Scaled is likely more efficient and able to make use of more advanced technologies to reduce costs. The question, though, is the model is off by a factor of ten, or only a factor of five or less?

How flexible is air launch? One of the advantages touted by air launch proponents is the flexibility to launch from a wide range of locations. You don’t need the fixed infrastructure of a launch pad; instead, just take off from your desired airport, point the plane in the right direction, and fire off the rocket. No worries about coordinating range availability with other rockets or maintaining expensive launch pad equipment. Orbital Sciences Corporation’s Pegasus, the most successful orbital air launch system, has demonstrated that flexibility by flying from several airports from the US and overseas.

However, the sheer size of Stratolaunch—far larger than Pegasus, which uses a converted L-1011 jumbo jet—will limit that flexibility. The aircraft requires a 12,000-foot (3,650-meter) runway, sharply limiting the number of airports in the US or elsewhere it can take off from. In addition, unless the first stage is reusable and designed to fly back (which it does not appear to be from the animation), the launch will have to take place over open water or very remote unpopulated areas, further limiting the airports to those in range of those drop zones. It’s no wonder, then, that the press release identified Kennedy Space Center as one possible launch site, given its five-kilometer-long Shuttle Landing Facility runway and access to the Eastern Range.

Moreover, any airport that Stratolaunch operates from will need some infrastructure that may be unique to that system. That will include a hangar large enough to accommodate the plane’s 385-foot (117-meter) wingspan, as well as propellant storage (RP-1 and LOX for the rocket) and equipment to integrate the payload onto the launch vehicle, and the launch vehicle onto the aircraft. That suggests that the plane will likely operate from only a handful of sites unless the company can find a way to scale back those equipment requirements.

A limited market. Stratolaunch advertises that the rocket can place up to 13,500 pounds (6,100 kilograms) into orbit. The specific orbit isn’t mentioned, but it’s most likely a favorable low-inclination due-east orbit, with decreased capacities for polar and sun-synchronous orbits as well as geosynchronous orbit. That makes it comparable to the Delta 2 Heavy, the most powerful versions of that vehicle that is on the verge of retirement. While Allen and others at Tuesday’s press conference brought up the idea of eventually flying crewed spacecraft, initially their focus is on launching satellites.

The problem is that this may well be a limited market. “There is a thriving communications satellite market for small to medium-class communications satellites,” Mike Griffin said at the press conference. However, a vehicle with this stated LEO capacity can likely carry satellites weighing no more than about 2 tons to GEO; the communications satellite market today is dominated by much larger satellites, with virtually nothing that small being built today. See, for example, the FAA Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts report for more data, in particular Figure 5 and Table 5, which shows only about 1 commercial GEO satellite a year with a mass less than 2,500 kilograms projected for launch through 2020.

A more likely market is for civil and military government satellites, of which Griffin estimates that there are about a half-dozen a year that previously flew on Delta 2. However, by the time Stratolaunch enters service, no earlier than 2016, Orbital’s Antares (née Taurus 2) rocket will have been in service for some time, serving that market; even SpaceX’s Falcon 9, while more capable, may attract customers with such satellites at its currently-advertised launch costs. There are also international options for non-US Government customers, like the Soyuz (now launching from French Guiana in addition to Russia and Kazakhstan), Land Launch’s Zenit-3SLB, and the Angara that is still under development in Russia.

It may turn out that Stratolaunch can beat out those other vehicles on price when it is introduced. (Company officials haven’t disclosed a target launch price for the vehicle.) However, given the inelastic nature of many of these existing markets, a lower-priced alternative may not stimulate much, if any, additional demand. This would force Stratolaunch to compete head-to-head with other companies (including potentially SpaceX) for the limited number of launch opportunities in this portion of the market.

This analysis is incomplete, primarily because it’s based on the limited technical and business information provided by Stratolaunch so far—a luxury it has thanks to the financial backing of Allen. There may be missing pieces to its business plan that make this system far less expensive to develop and operate and far more competitive in the global launch market than this analysis suggests, particularly if it can move into human spaceflight markets. Otherwise, despite being an interesting technical concept backed by an impressive team, Stratolaunch may not be that compelling in the long run.

Late last week members of the media received a notice of a press conference at 2 pm EST (1900 GMT) Tuesday about a new space travel venture backed by Microsoft co-founder Paul G. Allen. No other details were provided until a short time ago, when Allen announced via Twitter that “I have an [...]]]>

Late last week members of the media received a notice of a press conference at 2 pm EST (1900 GMT) Tuesday about a new space travel venture backed by Microsoft co-founder Paul G. Allen. No other details were provided until a short time ago, when Allen announced via Twitter that “I have an exciting space related announcement shortly” with a link to the video above.

The video is for a relatively new venture called Stratolaunch Systems. (Relatively new since the web site apparently has been public for some time, with a couple of older press releases available.) The company is pursuring an air-launch system, but on a scale never before attempted: a modified Falcon rocket, built by SpaceX, launched from a six-engine dual-fuselage aircraft that the company says “will be the largest aircraft ever flown.” The aircraft will be built by Scaled Composites, with Dynetics providing a “state-of-the-art mating and integration system”. The system will focus initially on launching satellites, but doesn’t rule out human missions as well.

The full press release from the company’s site is below, with more details to follow after today’s press conference:

PAUL G. ALLEN ANNOUNCES REVOLUTION IN SPACE TRANSPORTATION STRATOLAUNCH SYSTEM TO BRING SAFER, LESS EXPENSIVE, MISSIONS

SEATTLE, WA, Dec 13, 2011 – Entrepreneur and philanthropist Paul G. Allen announced today that he and aerospace pioneer Burt Rutan have reunited to develop the next generation of space travel. Allen and Rutan, whose SpaceShipOne was the first privately-funded, manned rocket ship to fly beyond earth’s atmosphere, are developing a revolutionary approach to space transportation: an air-launch system to provide orbital access to space with greater safety, cost-effectiveness and flexibility.

The space flight revolution Allen and Rutan pioneered in 2004 with SpaceShipOne now enters a new era. Only months after the last shuttle flight closed an important chapter in spaceflight, Allen is stepping in with an ambitious effort to continue America’s drive for space.

“I have long dreamed about taking the next big step in private space flight after the success of SpaceShipOne – to offer a flexible, orbital space delivery system,” Allen said. “We are at the dawn of radical change in the space launch industry. Stratolaunch Systems is pioneering an innovative solution that will revolutionize space travel.”

Allen’s new company, Stratolaunch Systems, will build a mobile launch system with three primary components:

• A carrier aircraft, developed by Scaled Composites, the aircraft manufacturer and assembler founded by Rutan. It will be the largest aircraft ever flown.
• A multi-stage booster, manufactured by Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies;
• A state-of-the-art mating and integration system allowing the carrier aircraft to safely carry a booster weighing up to 490,000 pounds. It will be built by Dynetics, a leader in the field of aerospace engineering.

Stratolaunch Systems will bring airport-like operations to the launch of commercial and government payloads and, eventually, human missions. Plans call for a first flight within five years. The air-launch-to-orbit system will mean lower costs, greater safety, and more flexibility and responsiveness than is possible today with ground-based systems. Stratolaunch’s quick turnaround between launches will enable new orbital missions as well as break the logjam of missions queued up for launch facilities and a chance at space. Rutan, who has joined Stratolaunch Systems as a board member, said he was thrilled to be back working with Allen. “Paul and I pioneered private space travel with SpaceShipOne, which led to Virgin Galactic’s commercial suborbital SpaceShipTwo Program. Now, we will have the opportunity to extend that capability to orbit and beyond. Paul has proven himself a visionary with the will, commitment and courage to continue pushing the boundaries of space technology. We are well aware of the challenges ahead, but we have put together an incredible research team that will draw inspiration from Paul’s vision.”

To lead the Stratolaunch Systems team, Allen picked a veteran NASA official with years of experience in engineering, management and human spaceflight. Stratolaunch Systems CEO and President Gary Wentz, a former chief engineer at NASA, said the system’s design will revolutionize space travel.

Former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin, also a Stratolaunch board member, joined Allen and Rutan at a press conference in Seattle to announce the project. “We believe this technology has the potential to someday make spaceflight routine by removing many of the constraints associated with ground launched rockets,” Griffin said. “Our system will also provide the flexibility to launch from a large variety of locations.”

The Stratolaunch system will eventually have the capability of launching people into low earth orbit. But the company is taking a building block approach in development of the launch aircraft and booster, with initial efforts focused on unmanned payloads. Human flights will follow, after safety, reliability and operability are demonstrated.

The carrier aircraft will operate from a large airport/spaceport, such as Kennedy Space Center, and will be able to fly up to 1,300 nautical miles to the payload’s launch point.

It will use six 747 engines, have a gross weight of more than 1.2 million pounds and a wingspan of more than 380 feet. For takeoff and landing, it will require a runway 12,000 feet long. Systems onboard the launch aircraft will conduct the countdown and firing of the booster and will monitor the health of the orbital payload.

The plane will be built in a Stratolaunch hangar which will soon be under construction at the Mojave Air and Space Port. It will be near where Scaled Composites built SpaceShipOne which won Allen and Scaled Composites the $10-million Ansari X Prize in 2004 after three successful sub-orbital flights. Scaled Composites is a wholly owned subsidiary of Northrop Grumman.

“Scaled is all about achieving milestones and pursuing breakthroughs, and this project offers both – building the largest airplane in the world, and achieving the manufacturing breakthroughs that will enable Scaled to accomplish it. We are thrilled to be a part of this development program,” said Scaled Composites President Doug Shane. “We anticipate significant hiring of engineering, manufacturing, and support staff in the near and medium term.”

The multi-stage booster will be manufactured by California-based Space Exploration Technologies, one of the world’s pre-eminent space transportation companies. “Paul Allen and Burt Rutan helped generate enormous interest in space with White Knight and SpaceShipOne,” said SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell. “There was no way we weren’t going to be involved in their next great endeavor. We are very excited.”

Dynetics will provide the mating and integration system and the systems engineering, integration, test and operations support for the entire air-launch system. The mating and integration system will be manufactured in Huntsville, Alabama in Dynetics’ new 226,500 square foot prototyping facility. Dynetics has been a leader in aerospace engineering since 1974. “We are excited to play such a major role on this system. This is an ambitious project unlike any that has been undertaken and I am confident the Stratolaunch team has the experience and capabilities to accomplish the mission,” said Dynetics Executive Vice President and Stratolaunch Board Member David King.

Stratolaunch Systems’ corporate headquarters is located in Huntsville, Alabama. Today’s announcement was the first public word that Allen and Rutan were back in the space business. But space has long been on Allen’s mind. In the close of his memoir, Idea Man, published earlier this year, he hinted at his plans, writing that he was “considering a new initiative with that magical contraption I never wearied of sketching as a boy: the rocket ship.”

Orbital Sciences Corporation announced Monday that it has renamed the Taurus 2 rocket it’s been developing as part of its commercial cargo system. Henceforth, the rocket will now be called Antares. “We are [...]]]>

Illustration of Orbital's Antares (formerly Taurus 2) rocket lifting off from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) in Virginia. (Credit: OSC)

Orbital Sciences Corporation announced Monday that it has renamed the Taurus 2 rocket it’s been developing as part of its commercial cargo system. Henceforth, the rocket will now be called Antares. “We are transitioning to the Antares identity primarily because a launch vehicle of this scale and significance deserves its own name, just like Orbital’s Pegasus, Taurus and Minotaur rocket programs that have come before it,” Orbital president and CEO David Thompson explained in a press release.

The name keeps with the company’s tradition of “Greek-derived celestial names” for its launch vehicles, which have included Pegasus, Taurus, and Minotaur. Antares, the company adds in “microsite” for the launch vehicle, is one of the brightest stars in the night sky and “we expect the Antares rocket to be one of the brightest stars in the space launch vehicle market.” (Antares, though, is a supergiant star, whereas the rocket is designed for medium-class payloads.) Antares also has a bit of space history: it was the name of the lunar module for Apollo 14. However, it was also the name of a fictional starship in an episode of the original Star Trek series that met its demise at the hands (or, rather, mind) of a teenager with psychokinetic powers. (Is there anyone named Charlie Evans working on the Antares program?)

Orbital adds that the name change will “clear up any marketplace confusion and provide clear differentiation between this new launch vehicle and our Taurus XL rocket.” That’s important, because the Antares is a very different rocket from the smaller, all-solid-fuel Taurus XL. Companies in the past have kept names even after major—even complete—design changes: for example, the Delta 2 has little in common with the Delta 4 beyond the name. However, given that the Taurus XL suffered failures in its last two launches, a rebranding avoids any potentially uncomfortable comparisons for Orbital as it prepares for the first launch of the new Antares.

A decade after the flight of Dennis Tito, widely if not universally acknowledged as the first space tourist, the company than brokered his flight sees a bright future ahead for commercial human [...]]]>

Illustration of a Soyuz spacecraft and habitation module en route to the Moon for a circumlunar flight Space Adventures has proposed.

A decade after the flight of Dennis Tito, widely if not universally acknowledged as the first space tourist, the company than brokered his flight sees a bright future ahead for commercial human spaceflight. In a teleconference with reporters on Thursday, Space Adventures chairman Eric Anderson said his company projects approximately 140 people to fly in space commercially in the coming decade. By comparison, during the last ten years seven people flew to space commercially on eight flights (one, Charles Simonyi, flew twice.)

Anderson said Space Adventures was asked by NASA and by Boeing (who Space Adventures has partnered with on development of a commercial crew vehicle, the CST-100) to provide an estimate on the demand for commercial human orbital spaceflight. That figure, he said, includes direct sales to individuals (the traditional “space tourist”) as well as lotteries and other competitions, corporate research, and educational missions. Anderson said the total specifically excludes what are often called “sovereign clients”, representatives of national space agencies flying for their governments. Those 140 people, he said, would fly to the ISS as well as Bigelow Aerospace facilities and one proposed by a Russian company, Orbital Technologies. “Realistically, having 140 individuals fly by the time 2020 rolls around is a pretty darn big accomplishment,” he said.

That estimate uses some relatively conservative assumptions on factors such as price and training time, Anderson said later. “For the majority of the next ten years, we would see prices roughly where they are now,” between $20 million and $50 million, he said. Price, he said, is probably the most important factor in demand, and there would not be dramatic changes in prices unless there was the development of a fully-reusable vehicle. Training time, he said would likely be no less than two months even for missions not going to the ISS. “I just don’t see a way to get that training time down any less than, say, six weeks,” he said. “There’s just too much stuff people need to know, they need to learn, in order to be prepared for the weightless environment.”

The other major aspect of the Space Adventures call Thursday was to provide an update on their circumlunar plans. Earlier this year Anderson announced that the company had signed up one customer for its proposed mission at a cost of $150 million. Anderson confirmed that on Thursday, and added that the company had started negotiations for the second seat available on the flight. “We are hopeful that the contract for the second client, and therefore the total locked-in mission, will be signed and announceable by the end of the year,” he said. Once the mission is “locked-in”, Anderson said they believe they will be able to fly it in about four years, or as soon as the end of 2015.

Anderson didn’t disclose the identities of either the signed customer or the potential customer they’re currently in negotiations with. However, Anderson did note, intriguingly, that the signed customer is planning some kind of research during the flight. The mission of that customer, he said, “is actually really, really meaningful. It is something that is going to address an issue and a concept that is of great importance to the world.” That work, which Anderson did not elaborate upon, will be “an amplifier to the attention” that circumlunar mission would receive and would “captivate a lot of people”.

Space Adventures also released some new images of the lunar mission concept, which features a habitation module launched separately on a Proton that would dock with the Soyuz spacecraft after the Soyuz completes a mission at the ISS. The hab module, along with the Soyuz modules, would provide 18 cubic meters of habitable volume for the three-person crew and would allow for “an extraordinarily comfortable trip to the Moon and back,” in the words of Richard Garriott, Space Adventures vice-chairman who flew to space as a customer of the company in 2008.

“We’re at an extraordinarily unusual moment in history,” Garriott said. “I good argument can be made that there’s every real possibility that the first human return to the Moon since the original Apollo flights may not be sponsored by any government of the Earth, but will be sponsored by private citizens.”