Comments on: For the CCiCap losers, what’s next?

By: Flechette

Flechette — Thu, 08 Aug 2013 02:23:38 +0000

If ATK really wants to continue in the space business (not just military missiles) they need to set up shop in Florida. Shipping large Shuttle-type solid rockets across the country is simply too expensive.

If they poured the propellant into them at the laucnh site (even if they made all of the structure in Utah) they could cut their price in half.

By: StephenB

StephenB — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 15:57:11 +0000

always right: “Blue Origin will be closed soon because Bezos do not invest in things that canâ€™t make huge profits”

By that logic, Bezos wouldn’t have started Blue Origin in the first place.

By: CharlesHouston

CharlesHouston — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 14:05:00 +0000

The business case for ATK and the Liberty rocket is not good. Still, I just talked to Brian Duffy (ATK representative in Houston) and he did say what Kent Rominger said – that ATK would continue but at a slower pace.
The two capsules selected (the Dragon and the CST=100) are different. Dragon is over designed and CST-100 is a simpler, no frills vehicle. The DreamChaser is attractive since it lands on a runway but winged vehicles are not as efficient as capsules. How would Liberty find a niche among the other offerings?
One, long term, avenue might be the extended cargo attachment for Liberty, at some point that would help to restore some of the lost Shuttle capabilities. But would ATK hang on that long and hope to sell the entire rocket for that capability? Likely not.

By: always right

always right — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 11:34:36 +0000

if true, this is the death for ATK’s space ambitions, since, after the Shuttles’ retirement, ATK will only sell 4-6 SRB5s for the 70 mt payload $L$, then, NASA will adopt only liquid fueled boosters (likely made by Aerojet/P&WR) for the 130 mt payload $L$ … Blue Origin will be closed soon because Bezos do not invest in things that can’t make huge profits … Excalibur Almaz will remain only a website&concept since no one invest in an old Soviet Union hardware that has zero paying customers … the DREAMchaser has been funded by NASA only to give the illusion (and ONLY the illusion) to have soon a cheaper version of the (expensive but successful) Space Shuttle and a 3rd option to carry astronauts to the ISS, but, if NASA hasn’t fully funded the DRAMchaser, clearly it doesn’t believe in this project, that, after all, derives from the HL-20, that’s one of NASA most expensive ($5+ billion) failed projects … about the CST-100 … now Boeing only needs to find the BIG BUG inside the project, to safely develop it … while, SpaceX must still man-rate the Falcon-9 and demonstrate, with dozens successful launches in a row, that its TEN-engines rocket is safe and reliable enough to carry humans … in other words, NASA still hasn’t any SURE replacement for the retired Shuttles and the russian Soyuz …

By: Fred Willett

Fred Willett — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 08:50:11 +0000

Come 2015 Cargo Resupply (CRS) will be ending and NASA will be looking for cargo AND crew vehicles.
The current US CRS vehicles are Dragon (SpaceX) and Cygnus (Orbital) but of all the cargo vessels ATV, HTV, Progress, Dragon and Cygnus only Dragon offers any real down mass.
It wouldn’t surprise me if, when calling for bids for the 2016-2020 period NASA lumped the cargo and crew together and awarded a mixture of crew and cargo flights to all of Boeing, SpaceX and SNC.
That would give them 3 vehicles capable of crew, cargo up and cargo down. It would mean real competition. Unfortunately in this scenario Orbital’s more limited vehicle dips out.

By: Coastal Ron

Coastal Ron — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 05:02:54 +0000

If it is Boeing, Sierra Nevada and SpaceX, then I think only Blue Origin will stay in the space business long-term.

For Excaliber Almaz, I just don’t see a long-term business, even if they do get enough passengers to do a couple of tourism flights.

For ATK, unless they can find customers for their rocket I don’t see them staying in business long enough to do anything with their spacecraft. But does anyone know of a market niche that the Liberty rocket addresses better than any other existing (and already proven) rocket? And if the Falcon Heavy becomes operational, it will offer more capacity for 2/3 the price – how will ATK gain marketshare against that? I just don’t see a bright and vibrant future for the Liberty rocket, even if they did win a NASA CCiCap award.