Comments on: Jumping the gun http://www.newspacejournal.com/2011/08/17/jumping-the-gun/ Tracking the entrepreneurial space industry Fri, 12 Sep 2014 14:33:32 +0800 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.38 By: Trent Waddington http://www.newspacejournal.com/2011/08/17/jumping-the-gun/comment-page-1/#comment-558250 Fri, 19 Aug 2011 11:05:16 +0000 http://www.newspacejournal.com/?p=1483#comment-558250 NASA has been saying that same non-committal answer since December. Anything else would require them to make a *decision*.

]]> By: Coastal Ron http://www.newspacejournal.com/2011/08/17/jumping-the-gun/comment-page-1/#comment-557897 Wed, 17 Aug 2011 20:45:17 +0000 http://www.newspacejournal.com/?p=1483#comment-557897 Sometimes one needs to be a careful reader to make sure they understand what’s really happening, especially if you get your news from the general new sites. This applies to everybody, not just SpaceX and NASA.

I see the takeaway as SpaceX doing everything they need to do to make C2/C3 a go, and NASA waiting to see if they can actually do it. NASA really has not incentive to take risks at this point, so the whole onus is on SpaceX.

For a number of reason, I would give the likelihood of a successful C2/C3 mission and completion of all COTS milestones about a 50% chance of happening. Lots they’re doing right, but lots of little things that could be out of their control that could go wrong.

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